FootyTips 
Bournemouth vs Manchester City 
Prediction
· Matchweek 31 · Vitality Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Manchester City to win at 48%. Overall probabilities: Bournemouth 27%, draw 25%, Manchester City 48%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 48%
model top outcome · 48%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Bournemouth 27% / Draw 25% / Manchester City 48%; expected goals 1.13-1.61; BTTS 54%; blended best estimate 19.8%/21.4%/58.8%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Bournemouth win: 27%
- Draw: 25%
- Manchester City win: 48%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.13 - 1.61
- Over 2.5: 52%
- Both teams to score: 54%
Model Ratings
Bournemouth Elo 1806 · Manchester City Elo 1965
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-11-06. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates Manchester City clear favourites at 48% in this Matchweek 31 fixture at Vitality Stadium — Bournemouth 27%, the draw 25%, Manchester City 48%. A clear Elo edge to Manchester City (1965 vs 1806), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
Manchester City are favoured at 48%. Bournemouth 27% / Draw 25% / Manchester City 48%.
What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from cloudbet, duelbits imply 15.8% Bournemouth win, 18.7% draw, 65.4% Manchester City win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 19.8% / 21.4% / 58.8%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Bournemouth vs Manchester City have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Manchester City?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.