FootyTips 
Bournemouth vs Liverpool 
Prediction
· Matchweek 5 · Vitality Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 13:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Bournemouth narrowly favoured (38%). Overall probabilities: Bournemouth 38%, draw 26%, Liverpool 36%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 38%
model top outcome · 38%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Liverpool win
Model 35.5% vs market 45.8%, edge -10.3pp.
Best available odds: 2.07 at stake · odds value -27%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Market more confident: the current top sportsbook price for Liverpool win is 2.07 with stake. The model has it at 35.5% versus a de-vigged market probability of 45.8% (-10.3pp edge).
The market rates this outcome higher than the model does. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-12T12:03:20.151Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Bournemouth win
Model 38.2% vs market 29.5%, edge +8.7pp.
Best available odds: 3.25 at stake · odds value +24%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Model above market: the current top sportsbook price for Bournemouth win is 3.25 with stake. The model has it at 38.2% versus a de-vigged market probability of 29.5% (+8.7pp edge).
The model rates this higher than the market does. In our settled sample this band has had negative closing-line value — worth investigating why, not a reason to back it. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-12T12:03:20.151Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 26.3% vs market 24.5%, edge +1.8pp.
Best available odds: 3.85 at stake · odds value +1%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.85 with stake. The model has it at 26.3% versus a de-vigged market probability of 24.5% (+1.8pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-12T12:03:20.151Z.
| Source | Bournemouth | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 38.2% | 26.3% | 35.5% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave) | 29.5% | 24.5% | 45.8% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 33.0% | 25.4% | 41.6% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 12, 12:03 PM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Bournemouth | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 3.25 | 3.85 | 2.07 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 3.15 | 3.85 | 2.05 |
| vave | 3.15 | 3.8 | 2.04 |
| duelbits ↗ | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.06 |
| ★ Best | 3.25 stake | 3.85 stake | 2.07 stake |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Bournemouth 38% / Draw 26% / Liverpool 36%; expected goals 1.38-1.32; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 33.0%/25.4%/41.6%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-12T12:03:20.151Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Bournemouth win: 38%
- Draw: 26%
- Liverpool win: 36%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.38 - 1.32
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Bournemouth Elo 1797 · Liverpool Elo 1833
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-12. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 5 fixture at Vitality Stadium: Bournemouth 38%, the draw 26%, Liverpool 36%. With a modest Elo edge to Liverpool (1833 vs 1797), Bournemouth are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
Bournemouth are favoured at 38%. Bournemouth 38% / Draw 26% / Liverpool 36%.
What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave imply 29.5% Bournemouth win, 24.5% draw, 45.8% Liverpool win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 33.0% / 25.4% / 41.6%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-12T12:03:20.151Z.
Will Bournemouth vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.