FootyTips 
Bournemouth vs Liverpool 
Prediction
· Matchweek 5 · Vitality Stadium
Match Status
Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool · FT · Miss
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Bournemouth narrowly favoured (39%). Overall probabilities: Bournemouth 39%, draw 26%, Liverpool 35%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 39%
model top outcome · 39%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: Bournemouth 39% / Draw 26% / Liverpool 35%; expected goals 1.39-1.32; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 34.4%/26.0%/39.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Bournemouth 0-1 Liverpool. Model pick: Bournemouth. Actual result: Liverpool.
Brier contribution: 0.6360 · settled 2026-11-06
Win Probability
- Bournemouth win: 39%
- Draw: 26%
- Liverpool win: 35%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.39 - 1.32
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Bournemouth Elo 1806 · Liverpool Elo 1838
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 5 fixture at Vitality Stadium: Bournemouth 39%, the draw 26%, Liverpool 35%. With a modest Elo edge to Liverpool (1838 vs 1806), Bournemouth are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
Bournemouth are favoured at 39%. Bournemouth 39% / Draw 26% / Liverpool 35%.
What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 31.7% Bournemouth win, 25.6% draw, 42.7% Liverpool win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 34.4% / 26.0% / 39.7%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Bournemouth vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.