FootyTips 
Bournemouth vs Liverpool 
Prediction
· Matchweek 5 · Vitality Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 13:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Bournemouth narrowly favoured (39%). Overall probabilities: Bournemouth 39%, draw 26%, Liverpool 35%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 39%
model top outcome · 39%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Liverpool win
Model 35.3% vs market 44.1%, edge -8.8pp.
Best available odds: 2.21 at duelbits · odds value -22%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Market more confident: the current top sportsbook price for Liverpool win is 2.21 with duelbits. The model has it at 35.3% versus a de-vigged market probability of 44.1% (-8.8pp edge).
The market rates this outcome higher than the model does. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Bournemouth win
Model 38.4% vs market 30.7%, edge +7.7pp.
Best available odds: 3.15 at vave · odds value +21%. stake 3.1 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Model above market: the current top sportsbook price for Bournemouth win is 3.15 with vave. The model has it at 38.4% versus a de-vigged market probability of 30.7% (+7.7pp edge).
The model rates this higher than the market does. In our settled sample this band has had negative closing-line value — worth investigating why, not a reason to back it. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 26.3% vs market 25.3%, edge +1.0pp.
Best available odds: 3.85 at vave · odds value +1%. stake 3.8 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.85 with vave. The model has it at 26.3% versus a de-vigged market probability of 25.3% (+1.0pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
| Source | Bournemouth | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 38.4% | 26.3% | 35.3% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave) | 30.7% | 25.3% | 44.1% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 33.7% | 25.8% | 40.5% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 20, 08:03 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Bournemouth | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.16 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 3.1 | 3.75 | 2.16 |
| vave | 3.15 | 3.85 | 2.2 |
| duelbits ↗ | 3.05 | 3.8 | 2.21 |
| ★ Best | 3.15 vave | 3.85 vave | 2.21 duelbits |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: Bournemouth 39% / Draw 26% / Liverpool 35%; expected goals 1.39-1.32; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 33.7%/25.8%/40.5%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Bournemouth win: 39%
- Draw: 26%
- Liverpool win: 35%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.39 - 1.32
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Bournemouth Elo 1792 · Liverpool Elo 1826
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 5 fixture at Vitality Stadium: Bournemouth 39%, the draw 26%, Liverpool 35%. With a modest Elo edge to Liverpool (1826 vs 1792), Bournemouth are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
Bournemouth are favoured at 39%. Bournemouth 39% / Draw 26% / Liverpool 35%.
What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave imply 30.7% Bournemouth win, 25.3% draw, 44.1% Liverpool win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 33.7% / 25.8% / 40.5%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
Will Bournemouth vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Liverpool?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.