FootyTips 
Bournemouth vs Leeds United 
Prediction
· Matchweek 9 · Vitality Stadium
Match Status
Bournemouth 2-0 Leeds United · FT · Hit
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Bournemouth to win at 47%. Overall probabilities: Bournemouth 47%, draw 26%, Leeds United 27%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 47%
model top outcome · 47%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Oct 18, 08:02 PM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Bournemouth | Draw | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 2.17 | 3.5 | 3.15 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 2.14 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
| duelbits ↗ | 2.22 | 3.45 | 3.1 |
| ★ Best | 2.22 duelbits | 3.6 cloudbet | 3.15 stake |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: Bournemouth 47% / Draw 26% / Leeds United 27%; expected goals 1.59-1.15; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 44.9%/26.1%/28.9%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Bournemouth 2-0 Leeds United. Model pick: Bournemouth. Actual result: Bournemouth.
Brier contribution: 0.4174 · settled 2026-11-06
Win Probability
- Bournemouth win: 47%
- Draw: 26%
- Leeds United win: 27%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.59 - 1.15
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Bournemouth Elo 1806 · Leeds United Elo 1735
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-10-31. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates Bournemouth clear favourites at 47% in this Matchweek 9 fixture at Vitality Stadium — Bournemouth 47%, the draw 26%, Leeds United 27%. A modest Elo edge to Bournemouth (1806 vs 1735), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Bournemouth vs Leeds United?
Bournemouth are favoured at 47%. Bournemouth 47% / Draw 26% / Leeds United 27%.
What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Leeds United?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Bournemouth vs Leeds United?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 43.4% Bournemouth win, 26.6% draw, 30.0% Leeds United win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 44.9% / 26.1% / 28.9%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Bournemouth vs Leeds United have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Leeds United?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.