FootyTips 
Bournemouth vs Brighton and Hove Albion 
Prediction
· Matchweek 13 · Vitality Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 20:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Bournemouth narrowly favoured (43%). Overall probabilities: Bournemouth 43%, draw 26%, Brighton and Hove Albion 31%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 43%
model top outcome · 43%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Bournemouth 43% / Draw 26% / Brighton and Hove Albion 31%; expected goals 1.49-1.22; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Bournemouth win: 43%
- Draw: 26%
- Brighton and Hove Albion win: 31%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.49 - 1.22
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Bournemouth Elo 1792 · Brighton and Hove Albion Elo 1780
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model rates this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 13 fixture at Vitality Stadium: Bournemouth 43%, the draw 26%, Brighton and Hove Albion 31%. With near-level Elo ratings (Bournemouth 1792, Brighton and Hove Albion 1780), Bournemouth are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Bournemouth vs Brighton and Hove Albion?
Bournemouth are favoured at 43%. Bournemouth 43% / Draw 26% / Brighton and Hove Albion 31%.
What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Brighton and Hove Albion?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
Will Bournemouth vs Brighton and Hove Albion have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Brighton and Hove Albion?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.