FootyTips 
Bournemouth vs Brentford 
Prediction
· Matchweek 4 · Vitality Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Bournemouth to win at 46%. Overall probabilities: Bournemouth 46%, draw 26%, Brentford 28%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 46%
model top outcome · 46%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Bournemouth win
Model 46.4% vs market 39.2%, edge +7.2pp.
Best available odds: 2.47 at vave · odds value +15%. stake 2.46 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Model above market: the current top sportsbook price for Bournemouth win is 2.47 with vave. The model has it at 46.4% versus a de-vigged market probability of 39.2% (+7.2pp edge).
The model rates this higher than the market does. In our settled sample this band has had negative closing-line value — worth investigating why, not a reason to back it. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-12T12:03:20.151Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Brentford win
Model 28.0% vs market 34.4%, edge -6.3pp.
Best available odds: 2.85 at vave · odds value -20%. stake 2.8 ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Market more confident: the current top sportsbook price for Brentford win is 2.85 with vave. The model has it at 28.0% versus a de-vigged market probability of 34.4% (-6.3pp edge).
The market rates this outcome higher than the model does. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-12T12:03:20.151Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 25.5% vs market 26.4%, edge -0.9pp.
Best available odds: 3.65 at stake · odds value -7%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.65 with stake. The model has it at 25.5% versus a de-vigged market probability of 26.4% (-0.9pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-12T12:03:20.151Z.
| Source | Bournemouth | Draw | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 46.4% | 25.5% | 28.0% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave) | 39.2% | 26.4% | 34.4% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 42.1% | 26.1% | 31.8% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 12, 12:03 PM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Bournemouth | Draw | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 2.46 | 3.65 | 2.8 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 2.45 | 3.65 | 2.8 |
| vave | 2.47 | 3.65 | 2.85 |
| duelbits ↗ | 2.46 | 3.65 | 2.8 |
| ★ Best | 2.47 vave | 3.65 stake | 2.85 vave |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Bournemouth 46% / Draw 26% / Brentford 28%; expected goals 1.57-1.16; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 42.1%/26.1%/31.8%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-12T12:03:20.151Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Bournemouth win: 46%
- Draw: 26%
- Brentford win: 28%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.57 - 1.16
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Bournemouth Elo 1797 · Brentford Elo 1754
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-12. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model has Bournemouth clear favourites at 46% in this Matchweek 4 fixture at Vitality Stadium — Bournemouth 46%, the draw 26%, Brentford 28%. A modest Elo edge to Bournemouth (1797 vs 1754), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Bournemouth vs Brentford?
Bournemouth are favoured at 46%. Bournemouth 46% / Draw 26% / Brentford 28%.
What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Brentford?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Bournemouth vs Brentford?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave imply 39.2% Bournemouth win, 26.4% draw, 34.4% Brentford win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 42.1% / 26.1% / 31.8%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-12T12:03:20.151Z.
Will Bournemouth vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Brentford?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.