FootyTips 
Bournemouth vs Brentford 
Prediction
· Matchweek 4 · Vitality Stadium
Match Status
Bournemouth 2-2 Brentford · FT · Miss
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Bournemouth to win at 46%. Overall probabilities: Bournemouth 46%, draw 26%, Brentford 28%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 46%
model top outcome · 46%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: Bournemouth 46% / Draw 26% / Brentford 28%; expected goals 1.57-1.16; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 42.1%/26.2%/31.7%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Bournemouth 2-2 Brentford. Model pick: Bournemouth. Actual result: Draw.
Brier contribution: 0.8487 · settled 2026-09-20
Win Probability
- Bournemouth win: 46%
- Draw: 26%
- Brentford win: 28%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.57 - 1.16
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Bournemouth Elo 1792 · Brentford Elo 1759
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-12. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model has Bournemouth clear favourites at 46% in this Matchweek 4 fixture at Vitality Stadium — Bournemouth 46%, the draw 26%, Brentford 28%. A modest Elo edge to Bournemouth (1792 vs 1759), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Bournemouth vs Brentford?
Bournemouth are favoured at 46%. Bournemouth 46% / Draw 26% / Brentford 28%.
What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Brentford?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Bournemouth vs Brentford?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 39.2% Bournemouth win, 26.5% draw, 34.3% Brentford win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 42.1% / 26.2% / 31.7%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Bournemouth vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Brentford?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.