Bournemouth vs Aston Villa Prediction

Jan 2, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 19 · Vitality Stadium

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Bournemouth narrowly favoured (43%). Overall probabilities: Bournemouth 43%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 31%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 43%

Bournemouth vs Aston Villa prediction: 43% / 26% / 31% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Bournemouth
model top outcome · 43%

1-0
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Bournemouth 43% / Draw 26% / Aston Villa 31%; expected goals 1.48-1.23; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Bournemouth win: 43%
Draw: 26%
Aston Villa win: 31%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.48 - 1.23
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Bournemouth Elo 1806 · Aston Villa Elo 1798

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 19 fixture at Vitality Stadium: Bournemouth 43%, the draw 26%, Aston Villa 31%. With near-level Elo ratings (Bournemouth 1806, Aston Villa 1798), Bournemouth are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?

Bournemouth are favoured at 43%. Bournemouth 43% / Draw 26% / Aston Villa 31%.

What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Bournemouth vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.