FootyTips 
Bournemouth vs Arsenal 
Prediction
· Matchweek 33 · Vitality Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Arsenal to win at 50%. Overall probabilities: Bournemouth 25%, draw 25%, Arsenal 50%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 50%
model top outcome · 50%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Bournemouth 25% / Draw 25% / Arsenal 50%; expected goals 1.11-1.64; BTTS 54%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Bournemouth win: 25%
- Draw: 25%
- Arsenal win: 50%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.11 - 1.64
- Over 2.5: 52%
- Both teams to score: 54%
Model Ratings
Bournemouth Elo 1806 · Arsenal Elo 1979
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
The model installs Arsenal clear favourites at 50% in this Matchweek 33 fixture at Vitality Stadium — Bournemouth 25%, the draw 25%, Arsenal 50%. A clear Elo edge to Arsenal (1979 vs 1806), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Bournemouth vs Arsenal?
Arsenal are favoured at 50%. Bournemouth 25% / Draw 25% / Arsenal 50%.
What is the predicted score for Bournemouth vs Arsenal?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
Will Bournemouth vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Arsenal?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.