FootyTips 
Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur 
Prediction
· Matchweek 38 · Villa Park
Match Status
Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Aston Villa to win at 55%. Overall probabilities: Aston Villa 55%, draw 24%, Tottenham Hotspur 21%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 55%
model top outcome · 55%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Aston Villa 55% / Draw 24% / Tottenham Hotspur 21%; expected goals 1.79-1.02; BTTS 53%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Aston Villa win: 55%
- Draw: 24%
- Tottenham Hotspur win: 21%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.79 - 1.02
- Over 2.5: 53%
- Both teams to score: 53%
Model Ratings
Aston Villa Elo 1748 · Tottenham Hotspur Elo 1621
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes Aston Villa clear favourites at 55% in this Matchweek 38 fixture at Villa Park — Aston Villa 55%, the draw 24%, Tottenham Hotspur 21%. A clear Elo edge to Aston Villa (1748 vs 1621), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 53%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Aston Villa are favoured at 55%. Aston Villa 55% / Draw 24% / Tottenham Hotspur 21%.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
Will Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.