Aston Villa vs Sunderland Prediction

Nov 21, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 11 · Villa Park

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Aston Villa to win at 60%. Overall probabilities: Aston Villa 60%, draw 22%, Sunderland 18%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 60%

Aston Villa vs Sunderland prediction: 60% / 22% / 18% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Aston Villa
model top outcome · 60%

1-0
model score forecast

55%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-11-06
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Aston Villa 60% / Draw 22% / Sunderland 18%; expected goals 1.93-0.94; BTTS 52%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Aston Villa win: 60%
Draw: 22%
Sunderland win: 18%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.93 - 0.94
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams to score: 52%

Model Ratings

Aston Villa Elo 1781 · Sunderland Elo 1608

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-11-06. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model has Aston Villa clear favourites at 60% in this Matchweek 11 fixture at Villa Park — Aston Villa 60%, the draw 22%, Sunderland 18%. A clear Elo edge to Aston Villa (1781 vs 1608), and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 52%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Aston Villa vs Sunderland?

Aston Villa are favoured at 60%. Aston Villa 60% / Draw 22% / Sunderland 18%.

What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Aston Villa vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 52%.