Aston Villa vs Sunderland Prediction

Nov 21, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 11 · Villa Park

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Aston Villa to win at 53%. Overall probabilities: Aston Villa 53%, draw 24%, Sunderland 23%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 53%

Aston Villa vs Sunderland prediction: 53% / 24% / 23% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Aston Villa
model top outcome · 53%

1-0
model score forecast

53%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-20
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Aston Villa 53% / Draw 24% / Sunderland 23%; expected goals 1.72-1.06; BTTS 54%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Aston Villa win: 53%
Draw: 24%
Sunderland win: 23%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.72 - 1.06
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams to score: 54%

Model Ratings

Aston Villa Elo 1748 · Sunderland Elo 1648

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model has Aston Villa clear favourites at 53% in this Matchweek 11 fixture at Villa Park — Aston Villa 53%, the draw 24%, Sunderland 23%. A clear Elo edge to Aston Villa (1748 vs 1648), and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Aston Villa vs Sunderland?

Aston Villa are favoured at 53%. Aston Villa 53% / Draw 24% / Sunderland 23%.

What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Aston Villa vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.