FootyTips 
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest 
Prediction
· Matchweek 4 · Villa Park
Match Status
Aston Villa 1-2 Nottingham Forest · FT · Miss
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Aston Villa to win at 46%. Overall probabilities: Aston Villa 46%, draw 26%, Nottingham Forest 28%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 46%
model top outcome · 46%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Aston Villa 46% / Draw 26% / Nottingham Forest 28%; expected goals 1.55-1.17; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 44.1%/27.1%/28.8%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Aston Villa 1-2 Nottingham Forest. Model pick: Aston Villa. Actual result: Nottingham Forest.
Brier contribution: 0.7853 · settled 2026-09-20
Win Probability
- Aston Villa win: 46%
- Draw: 26%
- Nottingham Forest win: 28%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.55 - 1.17
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Aston Villa Elo 1748 · Nottingham Forest Elo 1744
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-12. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes Aston Villa clear favourites at 46% in this Matchweek 4 fixture at Villa Park — Aston Villa 46%, the draw 26%, Nottingham Forest 28%. Near-level Elo ratings (Aston Villa 1748, Nottingham Forest 1744), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
Aston Villa are favoured at 46%. Aston Villa 46% / Draw 26% / Nottingham Forest 28%.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 43.0% Aston Villa win, 28.0% draw, 28.9% Nottingham Forest win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 44.1% / 27.1% / 28.8%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.