Aston Villa vs Leeds United Prediction

Dec 26, 12:30 PM UTC · Matchweek 17 · Villa Park

Match Status

Kickoff 12:30 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Aston Villa to win at 47%. Overall probabilities: Aston Villa 47%, draw 25%, Leeds United 28%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 47%

Aston Villa vs Leeds United prediction: 47% / 25% / 28% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Aston Villa
model top outcome · 47%

1-0
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-11-06
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Aston Villa 47% / Draw 25% / Leeds United 28%; expected goals 1.57-1.16; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Aston Villa win: 47%
Draw: 25%
Leeds United win: 28%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.57 - 1.16
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Aston Villa Elo 1781 · Leeds United Elo 1735

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-11-06. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model has Aston Villa clear favourites at 47% in this Matchweek 17 fixture at Villa Park — Aston Villa 47%, the draw 25%, Leeds United 28%. A modest Elo edge to Aston Villa (1781 vs 1735), and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Aston Villa vs Leeds United?

Aston Villa are favoured at 47%. Aston Villa 47% / Draw 25% / Leeds United 28%.

What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Leeds United?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Aston Villa vs Leeds United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Leeds United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.