FootyTips 
Aston Villa vs Fulham 
Prediction
· Matchweek 9 · Villa Park
Match Status
Aston Villa 1-1 Fulham · FT · Miss
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Aston Villa to win at 52%. Overall probabilities: Aston Villa 52%, draw 24%, Fulham 24%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 52%
model top outcome · 52%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Oct 18, 08:02 PM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Aston Villa | Draw | Fulham |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 1.96 | 3.55 | 3.7 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 2.03 | 3.6 | 3.35 |
| duelbits ↗ | 1.99 | 3.5 | 3.65 |
| ★ Best | 2.03 cloudbet | 3.6 cloudbet | 3.7 stake |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Aston Villa 52% / Draw 24% / Fulham 24%; expected goals 1.70-1.07; BTTS 54%; blended best estimate 46.9%/24.8%/28.3%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Aston Villa 1-1 Fulham. Model pick: Aston Villa. Actual result: Draw.
Brier contribution: 0.8950 · settled 2026-11-06
Win Probability
- Aston Villa win: 52%
- Draw: 24%
- Fulham win: 24%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.70 - 1.07
- Over 2.5: 52%
- Both teams to score: 54%
Model Ratings
Aston Villa Elo 1781 · Fulham Elo 1699
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-10-31. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes Aston Villa clear favourites at 52% in this Matchweek 9 fixture at Villa Park — Aston Villa 52%, the draw 24%, Fulham 24%. A clear Elo edge to Aston Villa (1781 vs 1699), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Aston Villa are favoured at 52%. Aston Villa 52% / Draw 24% / Fulham 24%.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Aston Villa vs Fulham?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 43.5% Aston Villa win, 24.9% draw, 31.6% Fulham win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 46.9% / 24.8% / 28.3%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Aston Villa vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Fulham?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.