FootyTips 
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace 
Prediction
· Matchweek 14 · Villa Park
Match Status
Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Aston Villa to win at 56%. Overall probabilities: Aston Villa 56%, draw 23%, Crystal Palace 21%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 56%
model top outcome · 56%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Aston Villa 56% / Draw 23% / Crystal Palace 21%; expected goals 1.81-1.01; BTTS 53%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Aston Villa win: 56%
- Draw: 23%
- Crystal Palace win: 21%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.81 - 1.01
- Over 2.5: 53%
- Both teams to score: 53%
Model Ratings
Aston Villa Elo 1781 · Crystal Palace Elo 1648
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-11-06. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes Aston Villa clear favourites at 56% in this Matchweek 14 fixture at Villa Park — Aston Villa 56%, the draw 23%, Crystal Palace 21%. A clear Elo edge to Aston Villa (1781 vs 1648), and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 53%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?
Aston Villa are favoured at 56%. Aston Villa 56% / Draw 23% / Crystal Palace 21%.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
Will Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.