Aston Villa vs Brighton and Hove Albion Prediction

Apr 10, 02:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 31 · Villa Park

Match Status

Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model sees this as a close match, with Aston Villa narrowly favoured (39%). Overall probabilities: Aston Villa 39%, draw 26%, Brighton and Hove Albion 35%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: Low · top outcome 39%

Aston Villa vs Brighton and Hove Albion prediction: 39% / 26% / 35% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Aston Villa
model top outcome · 39%

1-0
model score forecast

51%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-20
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Aston Villa 39% / Draw 26% / Brighton and Hove Albion 35%; expected goals 1.39-1.31; BTTS 55%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Aston Villa win: 39%
Draw: 26%
Brighton and Hove Albion win: 35%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.39 - 1.31
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams to score: 55%

Model Ratings

Aston Villa Elo 1748 · Brighton and Hove Albion Elo 1780

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model has this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 31 fixture at Villa Park: Aston Villa 39%, the draw 26%, Brighton and Hove Albion 35%. With a modest Elo edge to Brighton and Hove Albion (1780 vs 1748), Aston Villa are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Aston Villa vs Brighton and Hove Albion?

Aston Villa are favoured at 39%. Aston Villa 39% / Draw 26% / Brighton and Hove Albion 35%.

What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Brighton and Hove Albion?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Aston Villa vs Brighton and Hove Albion have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Brighton and Hove Albion?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.