FootyTips 
Aston Villa vs Brentford 
Prediction
· Matchweek 6 · Villa Park
Match Status
Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford · FT · Miss
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Aston Villa narrowly favoured (41%). Overall probabilities: Aston Villa 41%, draw 26%, Brentford 33%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 41%
model top outcome · 41%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
18+ · Please gamble responsibly. Predictions are probabilistic, not guarantees. Availability of betting content may be restricted in your region.
Citable facts: Aston Villa 41% / Draw 26% / Brentford 33%; expected goals 1.43-1.27; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 37.4%/26.6%/35.9%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Miss: Final score Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford. Model pick: Aston Villa. Actual result: Draw.
Brier contribution: 0.8200 · settled 2026-11-06
Win Probability
- Aston Villa win: 41%
- Draw: 26%
- Brentford win: 33%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.43 - 1.27
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Aston Villa Elo 1781 · Brentford Elo 1768
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-10-10. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model has this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 6 fixture at Villa Park: Aston Villa 41%, the draw 26%, Brentford 33%. With near-level Elo ratings (Aston Villa 1781, Brentford 1768), Aston Villa are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Aston Villa are favoured at 41%. Aston Villa 41% / Draw 26% / Brentford 33%.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Aston Villa vs Brentford?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from bookmaker odds imply 35.3% Aston Villa win, 26.9% draw, 37.8% Brentford win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 37.4% / 26.6% / 35.9%. Market-probability snapshot: null.
Will Aston Villa vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.