FootyTips 
Aston Villa vs Brentford 
Prediction
· Matchweek 6 · Villa Park
Match Status
Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model sees this as a close match, with Aston Villa narrowly favoured (41%). Overall probabilities: Aston Villa 41%, draw 26%, Brentford 33%; model score 1-0.
Model confidence: Low · top outcome 41%
model top outcome · 41%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Aston Villa win
Model 40.8% vs market 35.4%, edge +5.4pp.
Best available odds: 2.7 at stake · odds value +10%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Model above market: the current top sportsbook price for Aston Villa win is 2.70 with stake. The model has it at 40.8% versus a de-vigged market probability of 35.4% (+5.4pp edge).
The model rates this higher than the market does. In our settled sample this band has had negative closing-line value — worth investigating why, not a reason to back it. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Brentford win
Model 33.0% vs market 37.3%, edge -4.2pp.
Best available odds: 2.55 at duelbits · odds value -16%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Market more confident: the current top sportsbook price for Brentford win is 2.55 with duelbits. The model has it at 33.0% versus a de-vigged market probability of 37.3% (-4.2pp edge).
The market rates this outcome higher than the model does. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 26.2% vs market 27.2%, edge -1.0pp.
Best available odds: 3.5 at stake · odds value -8%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 3.50 with stake. The model has it at 26.2% versus a de-vigged market probability of 27.2% (-1.0pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
| Source | Aston Villa | Draw | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 40.8% | 26.2% | 33.0% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave) | 35.4% | 27.2% | 37.3% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 37.6% | 26.8% | 35.6% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 20, 08:03 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Aston Villa | Draw | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.48 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 2.65 | 3.4 | 2.5 |
| vave | 2.6 | 3.45 | 2.5 |
| duelbits ↗ | 2.65 | 3.45 | 2.55 |
| ★ Best | 2.7 stake | 3.5 stake | 2.55 duelbits |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Aston Villa 41% / Draw 26% / Brentford 33%; expected goals 1.44-1.27; BTTS 55%; blended best estimate 37.6%/26.8%/35.6%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Aston Villa win: 41%
- Draw: 26%
- Brentford win: 33%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 1-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.44 - 1.27
- Over 2.5: 51%
- Both teams to score: 55%
Model Ratings
Aston Villa Elo 1748 · Brentford Elo 1759
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model has this a tight, evenly-matched Matchweek 6 fixture at Villa Park: Aston Villa 41%, the draw 26%, Brentford 33%. With near-level Elo ratings (Aston Villa 1748, Brentford 1759), Aston Villa are only narrow favourites, and the model score forecast is 1–0.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 55%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Aston Villa are favoured at 41%. Aston Villa 41% / Draw 26% / Brentford 33%.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Aston Villa vs Brentford?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave imply 35.4% Aston Villa win, 27.2% draw, 37.3% Brentford win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 37.6% / 26.8% / 35.6%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
Will Aston Villa vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 55%.