FootyTips 
Aston Villa vs Arsenal 
Prediction
· Matchweek 2 · Villa Park
Match Status
Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal · FT · Hit
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Arsenal to win at 53%. Overall probabilities: Aston Villa 23%, draw 24%, Arsenal 53%; model score 0-1.
Model confidence: Medium · top outcome 53%
model top outcome · 53%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.
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Citable facts: Aston Villa 23% / Draw 24% / Arsenal 53%; expected goals 1.06-1.72; BTTS 54%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.
Post-Match Result
Hit: Final score Aston Villa 0-1 Arsenal. Model pick: Arsenal. Actual result: Arsenal.
Brier contribution: 0.3360 · settled 2026-09-20
Win Probability
- Aston Villa win: 23%
- Draw: 24%
- Arsenal win: 53%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 0-1
- Expected goals (model lambda): 1.06 - 1.72
- Over 2.5: 53%
- Both teams to score: 54%
Model Ratings
Aston Villa Elo 1748 · Arsenal Elo 2000
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-31. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 53% in this Matchweek 2 fixture at Villa Park — Aston Villa 23%, the draw 24%, Arsenal 53%. A big Elo gap in Arsenal's favour (2000 vs 1748), and the model score forecast is 0–1.
Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 54%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
Arsenal are favoured at 53%. Aston Villa 23% / Draw 24% / Arsenal 53%.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
Our model score forecast is 0-1, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
Will Aston Villa vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Arsenal?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 54%.