Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction

May 1, 02:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 34 · Emirates Stadium

Match Status

Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Arsenal to win at 76%. Overall probabilities: Arsenal 76%, draw 15%, Tottenham Hotspur 9%; model score 2-0.

Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 76%

Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction: 76% / 15% / 9% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Arsenal
model top outcome · 76%

2-0
model score forecast

63%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Arsenal 76% / Draw 15% / Tottenham Hotspur 9%; expected goals 2.51-0.73; BTTS 48%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Arsenal win: 76%
Draw: 15%
Tottenham Hotspur win: 9%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 2-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 2.51 - 0.73
Over 2.5: 63%
Both teams to score: 48%

Model Ratings

Arsenal Elo 1979 · Tottenham Hotspur Elo 1642

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 76% in this Matchweek 34 fixture at Emirates Stadium — Arsenal 76%, the draw 15%, Tottenham Hotspur 9%. A big Elo gap in Arsenal's favour (1979 vs 1642), and the model score forecast is 2–0.

Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 48%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur?

Arsenal are favoured at 76%. Arsenal 76% / Draw 15% / Tottenham Hotspur 9%.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur?

Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 48%.