Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur Prediction

May 1, 02:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 34 · Emirates Stadium

Match Status

Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Arsenal to win at 79%. Overall probabilities: Arsenal 79%, draw 14%, Tottenham Hotspur 7%; model score 2-0.

Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 79%

Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction: 79% / 14% / 7% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Arsenal
model top outcome · 79%

2-0
model score forecast

65%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-20
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Arsenal 79% / Draw 14% / Tottenham Hotspur 7%; expected goals 2.68-0.68; BTTS 46%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Arsenal win: 79%
Draw: 14%
Tottenham Hotspur win: 7%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 2-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 2.68 - 0.68
Over 2.5: 65%
Both teams to score: 46%

Model Ratings

Arsenal Elo 2000 · Tottenham Hotspur Elo 1621

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 79% in this Matchweek 34 fixture at Emirates Stadium — Arsenal 79%, the draw 14%, Tottenham Hotspur 7%. A big Elo gap in Arsenal's favour (2000 vs 1621), and the model score forecast is 2–0.

Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams to score at 46%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur?

Arsenal are favoured at 79%. Arsenal 79% / Draw 14% / Tottenham Hotspur 7%.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur?

Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Tottenham Hotspur?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 46%.