Arsenal vs Newcastle United Prediction

Jan 23, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 22 · Emirates Stadium

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Arsenal to win at 69%. Overall probabilities: Arsenal 69%, draw 19%, Newcastle United 12%; model score 2-0.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 69%

Arsenal vs Newcastle United prediction: 69% / 19% / 12% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Arsenal
model top outcome · 69%

2-0
model score forecast

59%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-20
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Arsenal 69% / Draw 19% / Newcastle United 12%; expected goals 2.23-0.82; BTTS 50%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Arsenal win: 69%
Draw: 19%
Newcastle United win: 12%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 2-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 2.23 - 0.82
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams to score: 50%

Model Ratings

Arsenal Elo 2000 · Newcastle United Elo 1737

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 69% in this Matchweek 22 fixture at Emirates Stadium — Arsenal 69%, the draw 19%, Newcastle United 12%. A big Elo gap in Arsenal's favour (2000 vs 1737), and the model score forecast is 2–0.

Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 50%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Arsenal vs Newcastle United?

Arsenal are favoured at 69%. Arsenal 69% / Draw 19% / Newcastle United 12%.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Newcastle United?

Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Arsenal vs Newcastle United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Newcastle United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 50%.