Arsenal vs Newcastle United Prediction

Jan 23, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 22 · Emirates Stadium

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Arsenal to win at 72%. Overall probabilities: Arsenal 72%, draw 17%, Newcastle United 11%; model score 2-0.

Model confidence: Very High · top outcome 72%

Arsenal vs Newcastle United prediction: 72% / 17% / 11% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Arsenal
model top outcome · 72%

2-0
model score forecast

60%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-11-06
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Arsenal 72% / Draw 17% / Newcastle United 11%; expected goals 2.33-0.78; BTTS 49%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Arsenal win: 72%
Draw: 17%
Newcastle United win: 11%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 2-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 2.33 - 0.78
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams to score: 49%

Model Ratings

Arsenal Elo 1997 · Newcastle United Elo 1707

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-11-06. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 72% in this Matchweek 22 fixture at Emirates Stadium — Arsenal 72%, the draw 17%, Newcastle United 11%. A big Elo gap in Arsenal's favour (1997 vs 1707), and the model score forecast is 2–0.

Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 49%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Arsenal vs Newcastle United?

Arsenal are favoured at 72%. Arsenal 72% / Draw 17% / Newcastle United 11%.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Newcastle United?

Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Arsenal vs Newcastle United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Newcastle United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 49%.