Arsenal vs Manchester United Prediction

Dec 19, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 16 · Emirates Stadium

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Arsenal to win at 56%. Overall probabilities: Arsenal 56%, draw 23%, Manchester United 21%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 56%

Arsenal vs Manchester United prediction: 56% / 23% / 21% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Arsenal
model top outcome · 56%

1-0
model score forecast

53%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Arsenal 56% / Draw 23% / Manchester United 21%; expected goals 1.81-1.01; BTTS 53%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Arsenal win: 56%
Draw: 23%
Manchester United win: 21%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.81 - 1.01
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams to score: 53%

Model Ratings

Arsenal Elo 1979 · Manchester United Elo 1847

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 56% in this Matchweek 16 fixture at Emirates Stadium — Arsenal 56%, the draw 23%, Manchester United 21%. A clear Elo edge to Arsenal (1979 vs 1847), and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect a finely poised game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 53%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Arsenal vs Manchester United?

Arsenal are favoured at 56%. Arsenal 56% / Draw 23% / Manchester United 21%.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Manchester United?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Arsenal vs Manchester United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Manchester United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 53%.