Arsenal vs Manchester United Prediction

Dec 19, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 16 · Emirates Stadium

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Arsenal to win at 62%. Overall probabilities: Arsenal 62%, draw 21%, Manchester United 17%; model score 2-0.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 62%

Arsenal vs Manchester United prediction: 62% / 21% / 17% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Arsenal
model top outcome · 62%

2-0
model score forecast

55%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-20
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Arsenal 62% / Draw 21% / Manchester United 17%; expected goals 1.98-0.92; BTTS 52%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Arsenal win: 62%
Draw: 21%
Manchester United win: 17%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 2-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.98 - 0.92
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams to score: 52%

Model Ratings

Arsenal Elo 2000 · Manchester United Elo 1811

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 62% in this Matchweek 16 fixture at Emirates Stadium — Arsenal 62%, the draw 21%, Manchester United 17%. A clear Elo edge to Arsenal (2000 vs 1811), and the model score forecast is 2–0.

Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 52%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Arsenal vs Manchester United?

Arsenal are favoured at 62%. Arsenal 62% / Draw 21% / Manchester United 17%.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Manchester United?

Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Arsenal vs Manchester United have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Manchester United?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 52%.