FootyTips 
Arsenal vs Leeds United 
Prediction
· Matchweek 6 · Emirates Stadium
Match Status
Kickoff 11:30 UTC · Not started
Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —
The model favours Arsenal to win at 67%. Overall probabilities: Arsenal 67%, draw 20%, Leeds United 13%; model score 2-0.
Model confidence: High · top outcome 67%
model top outcome · 67%
model score forecast
over 2.5 goals probability
model update date
Betting View
This match value signal
Signal: Arsenal win
Model 67.3% vs market 71.8%, edge -4.5pp.
Best available odds: 1.33 at duelbits · odds value -11%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Market more confident: the current top sportsbook price for Arsenal win is 1.33 with duelbits. The model has it at 67.3% versus a de-vigged market probability of 71.8% (-4.5pp edge).
The market rates this outcome higher than the model does. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Leeds United win
Model 13.3% vs market 10.5%, edge +2.8pp.
Best available odds: 9 at stake · odds value +20%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Leeds United win is 9.00 with stake. The model has it at 13.3% versus a de-vigged market probability of 10.5% (+2.8pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
This match value signal
Signal: Draw
Model 19.5% vs market 17.8%, edge +1.7pp.
Best available odds: 5.4 at stake · odds value +5%. Verify price ↗
Re-check lineups and the live price before kickoff. Probabilities are research inputs, not guarantees.
Aligned: the current top sportsbook price for Draw is 5.40 with stake. The model has it at 19.5% versus a de-vigged market probability of 17.8% (+1.7pp edge).
Model and market agree; this row carries no divergence information. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
| Source | Arsenal | Draw | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model — FootyTips Elo + Poisson | 67.3% | 19.5% | 13.3% |
| Market — de-vigged odds (betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave) | 71.8% | 17.8% | 10.5% |
| Best estimate — model × market blend | 70.0% | 18.4% | 11.5% |
"Best estimate" blends the FootyTips model with de-vigged market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave (via Odds-API.io) at 40/60 in log space, frozen at kickoff.
Crypto Sportsbook Odds
Full comparison below; tap any book to verify the live price. We show a periodic snapshot, and odds move.
Odds snapshot: Sep 20, 08:03 AM UTC.
| Sportsbook | Arsenal | Draw | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|---|
| stake ↗ | 1.31 | 5.4 | 9 |
| cloudbet ↗ | 1.3 | 5.25 | 8.9 |
| vave | 1.32 | 5.2 | 8.6 |
| duelbits ↗ | 1.33 | 5.25 | 8.7 |
| ★ Best | 1.33 duelbits | 5.4 stake | 9 stake |
Best price = highest decimal odds across the compared books (via OddsPapi). Bold = best in column. Tap a sportsbook to verify the live price on their site. Measured sportsbook data & methodology →
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Citable facts: Arsenal 67% / Draw 20% / Leeds United 13%; expected goals 2.16-0.84; BTTS 51%; blended best estimate 70.0%/18.4%/11.5%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results, market odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave via Odds-API.io (snapshot 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z). Probabilities are not guarantees.
Win Probability
- Arsenal win: 67%
- Draw: 20%
- Leeds United win: 13%
Goals & Scoreline
- Model score: 2-0
- Expected goals (model lambda): 2.16 - 0.84
- Over 2.5: 58%
- Both teams to score: 51%
Model Ratings
Arsenal Elo 2000 · Leeds United Elo 1757
Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.
Analysis
Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 67% in this Matchweek 6 fixture at Emirates Stadium — Arsenal 67%, the draw 20%, Leeds United 13%. A big Elo gap in Arsenal's favour (2000 vs 1757), and the model score forecast is 2–0.
Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 51%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.
FAQ
Who will win Arsenal vs Leeds United?
Arsenal are favoured at 67%. Arsenal 67% / Draw 20% / Leeds United 13%.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Leeds United?
Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.
What do betting markets say about Arsenal vs Leeds United?
De-vigged 1X2 odds from betfair-exchange, cloudbet, duelbits, pinnacle, stake, vave imply 71.8% Arsenal win, 17.8% draw, 10.5% Leeds United win. Blending our model with the market gives a best estimate of 70.0% / 18.4% / 11.5%. Market-probability snapshot: 2026-09-20T08:03:38.483Z.
Will Arsenal vs Leeds United have over 2.5 goals?
The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Leeds United?
Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 51%.