Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction

Sep 6, 03:30 PM UTC · Matchweek 3 · Emirates Stadium

Match Status

Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea · FT · Hit

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Arsenal to win at 66%. Overall probabilities: Arsenal 66%, draw 20%, Chelsea 14%; model score 2-0.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 66%

Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea result card — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Arsenal
model top outcome · 66%

2-0
model score forecast

57%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-06
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Arsenal 66% / Draw 20% / Chelsea 14%; expected goals 2.10-0.87; BTTS 51%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Post-Match Result

Hit: Final score Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea. Model pick: Arsenal. Actual result: Arsenal.

Brier contribution: 0.1794 · settled 2026-09-20

Win Probability

Arsenal win: 66%
Draw: 20%
Chelsea win: 14%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 2-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 2.10 - 0.87
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams to score: 51%

Model Ratings

Arsenal Elo 2000 · Chelsea Elo 1751

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-06. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

The model installs Arsenal clear favourites at 66% in this Matchweek 3 fixture at Emirates Stadium — Arsenal 66%, the draw 20%, Chelsea 14%. A big Elo gap in Arsenal's favour (2000 vs 1751), and the model score forecast is 2–0.

Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 51%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Arsenal vs Chelsea?

Arsenal are favoured at 66%. Arsenal 66% / Draw 20% / Chelsea 14%.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Chelsea?

Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Arsenal vs Chelsea have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Chelsea?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 51%.