Arsenal vs Bournemouth Prediction

Dec 12, 03:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 15 · Emirates Stadium

Match Status

Kickoff 15:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Arsenal to win at 64%. Overall probabilities: Arsenal 64%, draw 21%, Bournemouth 15%; model score 2-0.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 64%

Arsenal vs Bournemouth prediction: 64% / 21% / 15% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Arsenal
model top outcome · 64%

2-0
model score forecast

56%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-09-20
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Arsenal 64% / Draw 21% / Bournemouth 15%; expected goals 2.04-0.89; BTTS 52%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Arsenal win: 64%
Draw: 21%
Bournemouth win: 15%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 2-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 2.04 - 0.89
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams to score: 52%

Model Ratings

Arsenal Elo 2000 · Bournemouth Elo 1792

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-09-20. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

The model installs Arsenal clear favourites at 64% in this Matchweek 15 fixture at Emirates Stadium — Arsenal 64%, the draw 21%, Bournemouth 15%. A big Elo gap in Arsenal's favour (2000 vs 1792), and the model score forecast is 2–0.

Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 52%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Arsenal vs Bournemouth?

Arsenal are favoured at 64%. Arsenal 64% / Draw 21% / Bournemouth 15%.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Bournemouth?

Our model score forecast is 2-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Arsenal vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Bournemouth?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 52%.