Arsenal vs Aston Villa Prediction

Apr 17, 02:00 PM UTC · Matchweek 32 · Emirates Stadium

Match Status

Kickoff 14:00 UTC · Not started

Source: TheSportsDB fixtures · Updated: —

The model favours Arsenal to win at 61%. Overall probabilities: Arsenal 61%, draw 22%, Aston Villa 17%; model score 1-0.

Model confidence: High · top outcome 61%

Arsenal vs Aston Villa prediction: 61% / 22% / 17% — Download card · share-ready 1:1

Arsenal
model top outcome · 61%

1-0
model score forecast

55%
over 2.5 goals probability

2026-08-01
model update date

Betting View

No live odds for this match yet. We show model probabilities now; value signals appear once bookmaker odds come in.

Check the market edge page

Citable facts: Arsenal 61% / Draw 22% / Aston Villa 17%; expected goals 1.95-0.93; BTTS 52%. Data sources: FootyTips Elo + Poisson model, TheSportsDB fixtures, martj42 historical results. Probabilities are not guarantees.

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Win Probability

Arsenal win: 61%
Draw: 22%
Aston Villa win: 17%

Goals & Scoreline

Model score: 1-0
Expected goals (model lambda): 1.95 - 0.93
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams to score: 52%

Model Ratings

Arsenal Elo 1979 · Aston Villa Elo 1798

Prediction by FootyTips.io's Elo + Poisson model · updated 2026-08-01. Probabilities, not guarantees.

Analysis

Our model makes Arsenal clear favourites at 61% in this Matchweek 32 fixture at Emirates Stadium — Arsenal 61%, the draw 22%, Aston Villa 17%. A clear Elo edge to Arsenal (1979 vs 1798), and the model score forecast is 1–0.

Expect an open game: the model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams to score at 52%. These are probabilities from our transparent Elo + Poisson model, not certainties — upsets are part of the Premier League.

FAQ

Who will win Arsenal vs Aston Villa?

Arsenal are favoured at 61%. Arsenal 61% / Draw 22% / Aston Villa 17%.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Aston Villa?

Our model score forecast is 1-0, aligned with the top win/draw/loss pick.

Will Arsenal vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?

The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Aston Villa?

Both teams to score (BTTS) is rated at 52%.